The CGA Scenarios workshop on Ukraine took place on October 22, 2010. The event assembled experts to develop plausible alternate futures for Ukraine, in hopes of broadening thinking and improving policy responses to potential changes in Ukraine’s domestic and foreign affairs. Read more about the Scenario process…
The output from this workshop, Ukraine 2020, was published in May 2011 and focuses on the following three alternate scenarios:
Scenario One: Fragmentation from Failed Authoritarianism
President Victor Yanukovych and his Party of Regions (PoR) initially manage to monopolize power, but their divisive policies and failure to restore economic growth generate significant dissatisfaction. The opposition, however, radicalizes and fragments, such that Yanukovych remains in power throughout the decade, albeit suffering a deep crisis of legitimacy. Local needs and expectations become of paramount importance—to the detriment of national unity.
Scenario Two: National Consensus Leading to Reform
Worsening economic conditions and a poor response from the Yanukovych administration galvanize opposition politicians, small-business owners, and young bureaucrats to action. When some oligarchs join this opposition coalition, the balance of power shifts decidedly against Yanukovych, paving the way for a pragmatic, reform-oriented leader to come to power and lead change in Ukraine.
Scenario Three: Strategic Authoritarianism
Yanukovych establishes himself at the apex of a power vertical, which he manages to maintain throughout the decade by exploiting the weakness of his opposition and meeting the expectations of his elite backers and the public for “stability” and economic growth.
A copy of the report can be downloaded here
The following experts participated in the Ukraine Event:
» Dominique Arel University of Ottawa
» Oleksandr Chalyi
» Samuel Charap Center for American Progress
» Edward Chow Center for Strategic & International Studies
» Olexiy Haran University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy
» Adrian Karatnycky Myrmidon Group LLC
» Nazar Kholod Peterson Institute for International Economics
» Serhiy Kudelia University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy
» Taras Kuzio University of Toronto
» Nico Lange Konrad Adenauer Stiftung
» Oxana Shevel Tufts University
» James Sherr Chatham House
» Kataryna Wolczuk University of Birmingham