The CGA Scenarios workshop on Turkey took place on May 21, 2010. The event assembled experts to develop plausible alternate futures for Turkey, in hopes of broadening thinking and improving policy responses to potential changes in Turkey’s domestic and foreign affairs. Read more about the Scenario process…
The output from this workshop, Turkey 2020, was published in May 2011 and focuses on the following three alternate scenarios:
Scenario One: Illiberal Islamist
The Justice and Development Party (AKP) consolidates its power by capitalizing on the weakness of the secularist opposition, responding to the demands of the conservative urban lower-middle class, and building an alliance with the Islamist Felicity Party (SP). By 2020, Sunni Islam is the most powerful force in domestic and foreign policy, to the exclusion of minority views.
Scenario Two: Illiberal Secularist
The AKP faces socio-economic challenges, increasing resistance to its Islamist tendencies, and a deteriorating security situation. This creates an opportunity for the Republican People’s Party (CHP) to come to power, with the support of the military and the National Movement Party (MHP). The new coalition espouses a strong, secure, and secular Turkey. In pursuing these goals, however, it tends toward authoritarianism.
Scenario Three: Political Pluralism
The AKP loses support when it fails to mitigate Turkey’s socio-economic problems. Dissatisfaction prompts civil society and political parties to begin coalescing around new approaches to the economy, corruption, regional development, and governance. Politics becomes more competitive, forcing parties to compromise in order to build governing coalitions, and the polarization between secularist and Islamist forces gives way to pragmatism.
A copy of the report can be downloaded here
The following experts participated in the Turkey Event:
» Henri Barkey Lehigh University
» Soner Çağaptay Washington Institute for Near East Policy
» Steven Cook Council on Foreign Relations
» Ahmet Evin Sabanci University
» Brian Katulis Center for American Progress
» Daniel Kurtzer Princeton University
» Ian Lesser German Marshall Fund of the United States
» Michael F. Oppenheimer NYU Center for Global Affairs (facilitator)
» Stephen Szabo German Marshall Fund of the United States
» Ömer Taşpinar The Brookings Institution
» Joshua Walker German Marshall Fund of the United States
» Ross Wilson Atlantic Council