The CGA Scenarios workshop on Pakistan took place on April 29, 2011. The event assembled experts to develop plausible alternate scenarios for Pakistan, in hopes of broadening thinking and improving policy responses to potential changes in Pakistan’s domestic and foreign affairs. Read more about the Scenario process…

Pakistan 2020
The output from this workshop, Pakistan 2020, was published in December 2011 and focuses on the following three alternate scenarios:

Scenario One: Radicalization
Perceived military threats, spiraling economic losses, and political infighting ignite populist fervor that leads to the democratic election of a conservative military officer. The new regime aims to strengthen Pakistan, and the wider Muslim world, through a radical Islamic agenda reinforced by Pakistan’s growing nuclear capability.

Scenario Two: Fragmentation
Devolution of resources to local and provincial authorities weakens federal control and legitimizes separatist movements, while internal and external defeats reduce loyalty in the army. Patronage networks come to dominate socio-economic relationships, regions operate independently of each other and nuclear material is, at best, insecure.

Scenario Three: Reform
A growing, urban middle class unites with expatriate entrepreneurs to spark a centrist political movement for consensus-based economic reforms. The movement forms a political party that prioritizes increased trade with regional partners and co-opts political and military elites by sharing the economic gains.

A copy of the report can be downloaded here

The following experts participated in the Pakistan event:

» Agha Ali Akram Yale School of Forestry

» Stephen P. Cohen Brookings Institution

» Toby Dalton Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

» Jehanzaib Khan Sociology of Education at New York University

» Mohsin S. Khan Peterson Institute for International Economics

» James M. Lindsay Council on Foreign Relations

» Daniel S. Markey Council on Foreign Relations

» Shuja Nawaz South Asia Center of the Atlantic Council

» Jonathan Paris South Asia Center of the Atlantic Council

» Aqil Shah Harvard University

» Marvin Weinbaum Middle East Institute

» Huma Yusuf Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

» Moeed Yusuf United States Institute of Peace

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