The CGA Scenarios Initiative is pleased to announce the publication of Iraq Post-2010, a report detailing three alternate scenarios for the future of the Middle East, post-U.S. occupation of Iraq based on a workshop held in March 2007.  Read more about the Scenarios process…

Iraq Post-2010

Scenario One: National Unity Dictatorship

Stable Iraq & Stable Region

A nationalist leader emerges from the chaos of Iraq, a leader who
is sufficiently independent of external players—the U.S., Iran, al Qaeda, Arab governments—to establish internal credibility as a unifying figure.

Scenario Two: Contained Mess

Unstable Iraq & Stable Region

As Iraq disintegrates into all-out civil war, neighboring countries— understanding the potential for contagion, radicalization and the threat to their regimes—manage to act collectively to avoid the worst case even as they pursue proxy war on Iraqi territory.

Scenario Three: Contagion

Unstable Iraq & Unstable Region

Iraq’s civil war spreads to adjoining states through refugee flows, growing radicalization of Arab populations, escalating terrorism and the deliberate efforts of regional rivals to destabilize each
others’ governments.

A copy of the report can be found here.


The following experts participated in the Iraq event:

  • Richard Bulliet, professor of history, Columbia University
  • Steven Cook, Douglas Dillon Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
  • Paul Cruickshank, fellow, NYU School of Law
  • Gregory Gause, associate professor of political science, University of Vermont
  • Terree Haidet, Federal Executive Fellow, The Brookings Institution
  • Toby Jones, Mellon Postdoctoral Fellow, Swathmore College
  • Gideon Rose, managing editor, Foreign Affairs
  • Gary Sick, senior research scholar, Middle East Institute, Columbia University
  • Steven Simon, senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies, Council on Foreign Relations