The CGA Scenarios Initiative is pleased to announce the publication of Iran 2015, a report detailing three alternate scenarios for the future of Iran based on a workshop held in January 2008.  Read more about the Scenarios process…

IRAN 2015

Scenario One: Containment

U.S.-Led Coalition Contains Iran

By 2012, the United States has organized a regional coalition to contain Iran, modeled to some degree on experience gained dealing with the Soviet Union. Isolation and external pressure towards the emergence of an Iranian “Gorbachev”—someone the West can do business with—is the long-term goal.

Scenario Two: Balance of Power

U.S. Drawdown from Iraq Triggers Middle East Balance of Power Dynamic

Acknowledging that the Iraq experiment has failed, the U.S. withdraws the majority of its troops and accepts a diminished military and political presence in the region. Regional players are forced to both balance and engage Iran, thereby protecting their sovereignty and limiting the damage from terrorism.

Scenario Three: Engagement

U.S. Engages Iran

A U.S.-Iran engagement defuses the confrontation over Iran’s nuclear program and its role in Iraq, and acknowledges Iran’s regional interests in exchange for increased stability in Iraq and international cooperation.

A copy of the report can be found here.


The following experts participated in the Iraq event:

  • Ervand Abrahamian, CUNY Distinguished Professor, Baruch College
  • Richard Bulliet, professor of history, Columbia University
  • Steven Cook, Douglas Dillon Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
  • Kaveh Ehsani, research scholar, University of Illinois at Chicago
  • Gregory Gause, associate professor of political science, University of Vermont
  • Elliot Hen-Tov, Ph.D. candidate, Middle Eastern Politics, Princeton University
  • Toby Jones, assistant professor of history, Rutgers University
  • David Sanger, chief Washington correspondent, New York Times, writer-in-residence, Center for a New American Security
  • Gary Sick, senior research scholar, Middle East Institute, Columbia University