The CGA Scenarios workshop on Turkey took place on May 21, 2010. The event assembled experts to develop plausible alternate futures for Turkey, in hopes of broadening thinking and improving policy responses to potential changes in Turkey’s domestic and foreign affairs. Read more about the Scenario process…
The CGA Scenarios workshop on Ukraine took place on October 22, 2010. The event assembled experts to develop plausible alternate futures for Ukraine, in hopes of broadening thinking and improving policy responses to potential changes in Ukraine’s domestic and foreign affairs. Ukraine 2020 can be found below the Turkey synopsis.
The output from this workshop, Turkey 2020, was published in May 2011 and focuses on the following three alternate scenarios:
Scenario One: Illiberal Islamist
The Justice and Development Party (AKP) consolidates its power by capitalizing on the weakness of the secularist opposition, responding to the demands of the conservative urban lower-middle class, and building an alliance with the Islamist Felicity Party (SP). By 2020, Sunni Islam is the most powerful force in domestic and foreign policy, to the exclusion of minority views.
Scenario Two: Illiberal Secularist
The AKP faces socio-economic challenges, increasing resistance to its Islamist tendencies, and a deteriorating security situation. This creates an opportunity for the Republican People’s Party (CHP) to come to power, with the support of the military and the National Movement Party (MHP). The new coalition espouses a strong, secure, and secular Turkey. In pursuing these goals, however, it tends toward authoritarianism.
Scenario Three: Political Pluralism
The AKP loses support when it fails to mitigate Turkey’s socio-economic problems. Dissatisfaction prompts civil society and political parties to begin coalescing around new approaches to the economy, corruption, regional development, and governance. Politics becomes more competitive, forcing parties to compromise in order to build governing coalitions, and the polarization between secularist and Islamist forces gives way to pragmatism.
A copy of the report can be downloaded here
The following experts participated in the Turkey Event:
» Henri Barkey Lehigh University
» Soner Çağaptay Washington Institute for Near East Policy
» Steven Cook Council on Foreign Relations
» Ahmet Evin Sabanci University
» Brian Katulis Center for American Progress
» Daniel Kurtzer Princeton University
» Ian Lesser German Marshall Fund of the United States
» Michael F. Oppenheimer NYU Center for Global Affairs (facilitator)
» Stephen Szabo German Marshall Fund of the United States
» Ömer Taşpinar The Brookings Institution
» Joshua Walker German Marshall Fund of the United States
» Ross Wilson Atlantic Council
The output from this workshop, Ukraine 2020, was published in May 2011 and focuses on the following three alternate scenarios:
Scenario One: Fragmentation from Failed Authoritarianism
President Victor Yanukovych and his Party of Regions (PoR) initially manage to monopolize power, but their divisive policies and failure to restore economic growth generate significant dissatisfaction. The opposition, however, radicalizes and fragments, such that Yanukovych remains in power throughout the decade, albeit suffering a deep crisis of legitimacy. Local needs and expectations become of paramount importance—to the detriment of national unity.
Scenario Two: National Consensus Leading to Reform
Worsening economic conditions and a poor response from the Yanukovych administration galvanize opposition politicians, small-business owners, and young bureaucrats to action. When some oligarchs join this opposition coalition, the balance of power shifts decidedly against Yanukovych, paving the way for a pragmatic, reform-oriented leader to come to power and lead change in Ukraine.
Scenario Three: Strategic Authoritarianism
Yanukovych establishes himself at the apex of a power vertical, which he manages to maintain throughout the decade by exploiting the weakness of his opposition and meeting the expectations of his elite backers and the public for “stability” and economic growth.
A copy of the report can be downloaded here
The following experts participated in the Ukraine Event:
» Dominique Arel University of Ottawa
» Oleksandr Chalyi
» Samuel Charap Center for American Progress
» Edward Chow Center for Strategic & International Studies
» Olexiy Haran University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy
» Adrian Karatnycky Myrmidon Group LLC
» Nazar Kholod Peterson Institute for International Economics
» Serhiy Kudelia University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy
» Taras Kuzio University of Toronto
» Nico Lange Konrad Adenauer Stiftung
» Oxana Shevel Tufts University
» James Sherr Chatham House
» Kataryna Wolczuk University of Birmingham