The CGA Scenarios workshop on Russia took place on February 26, 2010. The event assembled experts to develop plausible alternate futures for Russia, in hopes of broadening thinking and improving policy responses to potential changes in Russia’s domestic and foreign affairs. Read more about the Scenario process…
The output from this workshop, Russia 2020, was published in August 2010 and presents the following three alternate scenarios:
Scenario One: Working Authoritarianism
After a prolonged period of economic stagnation, Russia is forced to dramatically shift gears. Moscow rejects liberal-oriented economic solutions, steps that could lead to calls for more political openness. It ultimately manages to energize and diversify its economy without extensive liberalization by restructuring its energy sector and forging strategic commercial and financial alliances with China, Germany, and South Korea.
Scenario Two: Bottom-Up Liberalization & Modernization
A struggle for dominance between reformist and conservative elements results in
a stalemate, reducing the government’s ability to address economic challenges. Fueled by the dynamism of a new generation of entrepreneurs and capital from Moscow, new enterprises emerge in a number of Russia’s regions, symbolizing Russia’s economic rebirth and the beginning of political pluralism.
Scenario Three: Degeneration
The Russian government remains unable to solve the country’s deep economic and social problems and deflects alternative solutions that might weaken its grip on political power. The country continues to stagnate, forcing the regions to “fend for themselves.” Gradually, state capacity erodes, social fabric breaks down, and the country begins to fragment politically and geographically.
A copy of the report can be downloaded here.
The following experts participated in the Russia Event:
» Oksana Antonenko The International Institute for Strategic Studies
» Douglas Blum Providence College
» Mark Galeotti NYU Center for Global Affairs
» Thomas Graham Kissinger Associates
» Nina Khrushcheva The New School
» Andrey Kortunov New Eurasia Foundation
» Marlene Laruelle Central Asia – Caucasus Institute
» Robert Legvold Columbia University
» Bobo Lo Centre for European Reform
» Andrew Nagorski EastWest Institute
» Olga Oliker RAND Corporation
» Michael F. Oppenheimer NYU Center for Global Affairs (facilitator)
» Robert Orttung Resource Security Institute
» Nikolay Petrov Carnegie Moscow Center
» Gilbert Rozman Princeton University
» Rachel Ziemba Roubini Global Economics