China 2020 Published

The CGA Scenarios workshop on China took place on October 16, 2009. The event assembled experts to develop plausible alternate futures for China, in hopes of broadening thinking and improving policy responses to potential changes in China’s domestic and foreign affairs. Read more about the Scenario process…

China 2020
The output from this workshop, China 2020, was published in February 2010 and presents the following three alternate scenarios:

Scenario One: Fragmentation
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) faces escalating demands from a range of actors who have slowly chipped away at its legitimacy and capacity. When faced simultaneously with a major national disaster and an international crisis – during a time of power
transition – the CCP is unable to respond effectively and its very survival is at risk.

Scenario Two: Strong State
Having engaged its best and brightest to successfully address the many challenges faced by China, the CCP remains highly autocratic, making extensive use of technology to improve government performance and suppress dissent. To safeguard its legitimacy, the CCP uses polling to continuously track public satisfaction with government policies and with the performance of senior party figures.

Scenario Three: Partial “Democracy”
Following several perceived failures of governance, the CCP is able to maintain a powerful position only by accommodating greater popular demand for openness and participation in shaping China’s political and economic agenda.

A copy of the report can be downloaded here.

Participants
The following experts participated in the scenarios workshop on China:

» Daniel Ahn Louis Capital Markets

» Nayan Chanda Yale Center for the Study of Globalization

» David Denoon New York University

» John Frankenstein Brooklyn College

» Taylor Fravel MIT

» Dru Gladney Pomona College, Pacific Basin Institute

» François Godement Sciences Po

» Roberto Herrera-Lim Eurasia Group

» Nazrul Islam United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs

» Cheng Li Brookings Institution

» James Mulvenon Defense Group, Inc.

» Michael F. Oppenheimer Center for Global Affairs, NYU (facilitator)

» Stephen Orlins National Committee on United States-China Relations

» Dudley Poston Texas A&M University

» Adam Segal Council on Foreign Relations

» Julian Wong Center for American Progress

» Geng Xiao Brookings-Tshinghua Center for Public Policy

» Xiao Qiang China Internet Project

» Wei Zhang Cambridge University

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